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Prediction for CME (2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-31T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28422/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo CME with protruding narrower nose, seen in SOHO C2/C3 coronagraphs (fully covered by a data gap in STEREO A beacon); associated with X5 class flare from AR13536 near East limb. Coronal signatures include narrow ejecta seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting 2023-12-31T21:44Z and a wide EUV wave in AIA 193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by sharp jumping in B tot from 5nT to just under 10nT and increases in solar wind speed (from 425 km/s to ~490 km/s), density and temperature. DSCOVR is corroborated by ACE (despite large data gaps). The initial shock is followed after 2024-01-03T16:30Z by a smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, indicating a flux rope. An hour later there is a similar arrival signature at STEREO A. Tentatively associating this arrival with 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME. Even though this might alternatively be 2023-12-30T09:36Z CME arriving, 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME is a likelier candidate bc of high speed at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T14:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-02T02:20Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC URSIGRAM 40101
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2024, 1233UT

Coronal mass ejections: ...A second CME was detected at 22:00 UTC on December 31, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a X5.0-flare, with peak time 21:55 UTC on December 31. A glancing blow from both these CMEs may be possible. Further analysis is ongoing.


SIDC URSIGRAM 40102
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2024, 1240UT

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s, have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the two CMEs seen in LASCO C2 data one ... seen at 22:00 UTC on December 31, with an estimated speed of around 1600 km/s shows a possible glancing blow early on January 02.

Lead Time: 27.72 hour(s)
Difference: 35.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-01-02T10:36Z

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